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Posted by Jack Roberts (Member # 13) on July 01, 2004, 06:01 PM:
I know how probabilities work. Even if you had 50 heads in a row, you still only have a 50% chance of getting a tails.
Now to the story.
A friend of mine has been putting in for a deer tag for where he lives for well over 20 years and has never drawn one. His neighbor has drawn one 9 years in a row. If everything is on the up-and-up, that is quite a coincidence.
Should I ask one of them to pick some lottery numbers for me? (Actually I never play because I would be too embarassed to claim the prize.)
Are these game tag drawings always honest?
Jack
Posted by Cal Taylor (Member # 199) on July 01, 2004, 06:09 PM:
I'm a victim too Jack. I haven't drawn a bull elk tag for about 9 years in an area that has about 40% draw odds. I finally gave up and put in for an area that I will have to pay a reasonably steep tresspass fee for this year, and I drew it. I gave up on ever drawing a Wyoming moose tag and settled some debts owed to me by a booking agency, by booking a moose hunt in Canada. It was the only way to get my money and I'll get a moose too I hope. It doesn't look good at all for a sheep tag in my lifetime. So I don't know about the draw systems. I guess if anything comes down to pure luck, some are luckier than others.
Posted by Leonard (Member # 2) on July 01, 2004, 06:57 PM:
Jack, I remember something from a while ago, that a drawing was rigged, but don't know who, or where?
Human nature being what it is, if there's a will, there's a way. Cynical attitude, but we always hear about the lucky dude getting drawn on his first attempt, and the others that put in for everything, every year, and never even get a sniff.
Nevada was forced to change the drawing for res and nonres tags, a couple years ago. I think it was decided that it was unfair to the nonres.....but what else is new?
Good hunting. LB
Posted by Brad Norman (Member # 234) on July 02, 2004, 07:15 AM:
Cal, Do you need anyone to "tag along" with you on Moose hunt?
Posted by Cal Taylor (Member # 199) on July 02, 2004, 08:53 AM:
Sure thing Brad, I could use a camera man or I can see if there's a spot open if you want to book. It would be an interesting experiment anyway, between the southern drawl and the northern EH!
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