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Author
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Topic: Free offer
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booger
TOO BIG TO FAIL
Member # 3602
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posted May 24, 2013 02:00 PM
Afternoon everyone! I have been away from the computer for several months taking care of family issues, but am getting those settled down.
It was good to hear from Cdog awhile back...hope you got his vehicle running, Lance!!
I am a banker by trade, and was at a lending conference a month or so ago, and we had a very interesting presentation by an economist. I took notes like I was back in college, and have waited to see if most of the stuff he talked about had any merit.
After watching the antics of the Federal Open Market Committee and the joker at the head of the Fed, Bernanke, I am seeing that his analysis is pretty well spot on.
The long and the short of his presentation was that the stock market will stay strong as long as the Fed is pumping $85 Billion per month into the economy--(This is known as Quantitative Easing--more specifically this round is the third, so if you see QE3, you know what it is).
He thinks that the Fed will continue this practice until the end of 2014...Welllll, yesterday, Bernanke pulled a fast one and indicated that he might be cutting off QE3 sooner than '14, in his words, 'Just to see what the market will do'.
Anyone who wants to send me an email can get my notes and do with them what they want...myself, I am positioning everything so I can get out of the market and sit on the sidelines in insured deposits to see where this shakes out. I think we have some time to watch this, but I think by August of next year, I am going to be ready to pull the trigger. Sooner, if this jackass wants to start jacking with the market. He chided congress this week for spending too much time on worrying about the deficits.
I am not going to give 40-50% back to the market like '08 and '09--it might not recover again.
I think with the out of control spending, deficits, and inflation we are looking at long term, the market adjustment coming might make '08 and '09 look small.
Give me a shout if you are interested!
[ May 24, 2013, 02:18 PM: Message edited by: booger ]
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If we ever forget we are one Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under--Ronald Reagan
Posts: 911 | From: Bob Dole Country | Registered: Apr 2010
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TA17Rem
Hello, I'm the legendary Tim Anderson, Southern Minneesota Know it all
Member # 794
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posted May 24, 2013 02:46 PM
Booger thanks for the heads up. I took a good portion of my retirement money and invested it in a higher pay out bracket. Been raping the stock market for the last year and a half.. Not much I can do now since its locked in till next March but will keep an eye on the market and make some changes in the spring if needed. Thanks...
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What if I told you, the left wing and right wing both belong to same bird!
Posts: 5617 | From: S.D. | Registered: Jan 2006
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Cdog911
"There are some ideas so absurd only an intellectual could believe them."--George Orwell.
Member # 7
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posted May 24, 2013 04:52 PM
Printing money one one side of the room, and buyin g bad mortgages on the other to keep velocity up according to one of my advisors. At his suggestion, I positioned my federal retirement funds to take advantage of this up to the point. I can move them within 12 hours so put a sticky note on your desk to call me when they decide to end QE3. Please ?
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I am only one. But still, I am one. I cannot do everything, but still, I can do something; and, because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do something that I can do.
Posts: 5440 | From: The gun-lovin', gun-friendly wild, wild west | Registered: Jan 2003
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booger
TOO BIG TO FAIL
Member # 3602
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posted May 24, 2013 05:27 PM
Sure will, Lance. Open Market Committee's indicators when QE3 will end is when inflation hits 2.5% and unemployment hits 6.5%.
The way the gubmit massages the unemployment figures, who knows when that might happen.
Had a guy tell me one time, "Knowing and not doing, is just like not knowing".
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If we ever forget we are one Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under--Ronald Reagan
Posts: 911 | From: Bob Dole Country | Registered: Apr 2010
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Aznative
FARTS ON CLUELESS LIBERALS
Member # 506
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posted May 26, 2013 11:47 AM
I think we will see the housing market take another hit when the fed stops pumping the money. The recent price increases many think are price recoveries will probably evaporate when the 1st mortgage interest rate goes above 5.5%. Running this through my excel spreedsheet: the payment for a 150k home at 3.75% interest is 673/mth. the payment for a 120k home at 5.5% interest is 681/mth. I can see a 20-30% decrease in the value of homes if first mortgage rates go up 1.25%. Things are still shaky IMHO.
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Never thought the devil would need a teleprompter but I could be wrong.
United State of America: RIP
Born July 4th 1776 died November 6th 2012
Posts: 1937 | From: Phoenix Az | Registered: Jan 2005
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TRnCO
FUTURE HALL OF FAMER
Member # 690
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posted May 26, 2013 07:27 PM
Trying to time when to jump out and then when to get back in seems like a no win plan for most of us, so like usual, I'll leave every thing that I've put in the market there and keep adding more to it since I've got a good 20 more years for the market to correct and crash another 2, 5, 10, or 20 times before I'll be thinking "retirement". Once I get closer, I'll then think about shifting into a less aggressive position.
The government has a special talent at screwing things up, so I'm sure they'll screw lots more than the market up by the time I retire. Hell, they'll probably be taxing my retirement funds or taking my retirement funds and giving me an I.O.U. of some sort, by the time I'm ready to retire.
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Is it hunting season yet? I hate summer!
Posts: 996 | From: Elizabeth, CO | Registered: Aug 2005
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Dave Allen
Hi, I'm SUPER DAVE, IN CHARGE OF Q STUFF (and Goat Leader) "I'm really not trying to be a dick".
Member # 3102
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posted May 27, 2013 08:12 AM
Interesting thread, Tim.
It's good to see ya around again, hope the family issues get resolved.
Yeah, this bubble has to pop sooner or later, then it's gonna' get real interesting, to say the least..
Posts: 1986 | From: Jordan Valley Oregon | Registered: Aug 2008
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Kokopelli
SENIOR DISCOUNT & Dispenser of Sage Advice
Member # 633
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posted May 27, 2013 10:28 AM
Part (not all, but part) of the reason that Wally-World is constantly out of ammo is that a number of people are buying ammo as a real commodity.......as in, ammo has value; obama bucks, maybe not so much next week / month / year.
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And lo, the Light of the Trump shown upon the Darkness and the Darkness could not comprehend it.
Posts: 8232 | From: Under a wandering star | Registered: Apr 2005
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booger
TOO BIG TO FAIL
Member # 3602
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posted May 28, 2013 12:14 PM
I think I have sent a response back to those who sent me emails.
Dave--hope things are going well in your beautiful state! Just dealing with my wife's parents. Both are in the nursing home and we have spent 12 months getting their personal property sold and their home sold. They really are great people--my wife has great brothers, but two a$$holes for sisters--so in the midst of dealing with something that was tough enough already, we had to deal with idiots!
TR--I agree with you--a person can never pick when to get out of the market. My point was that the Fed is telegraphing when they will stop this process. When this is stopped, SOMETHING is going to happen--while I hope it isn't as bad as I might think, the market will go down.
The Fed has kept inflation in check by purposely pumping money into the economy, thus keeping rates low, and making alternative investments like the stock market attractive. We will see inflation rise as well as interest rates once this stops.
One other nugget of info to look at--if you invest in individual stocks, look at the P/E Ratio. This is the relationship between the current price and the company's earnings. A relatively low, (10-20), P/E indicates that the company is making money and a good investment based on their current earnings.
A high P/E, (20+), is an indication the market may be overbought and stocks are higher in relation to their earnings.
Some well known companies today have P/E's in excess of 35...just another something to process. Here are some P/E's from todays quotes:
Wal Mart 15
Cabelas 24
Under Armour 55
Johnson and Johnson 23
Caterpillar 12
Hope I haven't bored anyone! ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
[ May 28, 2013, 12:21 PM: Message edited by: booger ]
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If we ever forget we are one Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under--Ronald Reagan
Posts: 911 | From: Bob Dole Country | Registered: Apr 2010
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